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1、1 Simulation Technique for conducting experiments with a computer on a model of a management system Frequently used DSS tool 2 Major Characteristics of Simulation Imitates reality and capture its richness Technique for conducting experiments Descriptive, not normative tool Often to solve very comple
2、x, risky problems 3 Advantages of Simulation 1. Theory is straightforward2. Time compression3. Descriptive, not normative4. MSS builder interfaces with manager to gain intimate knowledge of the problem5. Model is built from the managers perspective6. Manager needs no generalized understanding. Each
3、component represents a real problem component(More) 4 7. Wide variation in problem types 8. Can experiment with different variables 9. Allows for real-life problem complexities10. Easy to obtain many performance measures directly11. Frequently the only DSS modeling tool for nonstructured problems12.
4、 Monte Carlo add-in spreadsheet packages (Risk) 5 Limitations of Simulation1. Cannot guarantee an optimal solution2. Slow and costly construction process3. Cannot transfer solutions and inferences to solve other problems4. So easy to sell to managers, may miss analytical solutions5. Software is not
5、so user friendly 6 Simulation MethodologyModel real system and conduct repetitive experiments1. Define problem2. Construct simulation model3. Test and validate model4. Design experiments5. Conduct experiments6. Evaluate results7. Implement solution 7 Simulation Types Probabilistic Simulation Discret
6、e distributions Continuous distributions Probabilistic simulation via Monte Carlo technique Time dependent versus time independent simulation Simulation software Visual simulation Object-oriented simulation 8 Visual Spreadsheets User can visualize models and formulas with influence diagrams Not cell
7、s-symbolic elements 9 Visual Interactive Modeling (VIS) and Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) Visual interactive modeling (VIM)Also called Visual interactive problem solving Visual interactive modeling Visual interactive simulation Use computer graphics to present the impact of different managemen
8、t decisions. Can integrate with GIS Users perform sensitivity analysis Static or a dynamic (animation) systems 10 Generated Image of Traffic at an Intersection from the Orca Visual Simulation Environment (Courtesy Orca Computer, Inc.) 11 Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS) Decision makers interact w
9、ith the simulated model and watch the results over time Visual interactive models and DSS Queueing 12 SUMMARY Models play a major role in DSS Models can be static or dynamic Analysis is under assumed certainty, risk, or uncertainty Influence diagrams Spreadsheets Decision tables and decision trees S
10、preadsheet models and results in influence diagrams Optimization: mathematical programming(More) 13 Linear programming: economic-based Heuristic programming Simulation - more complex situations Expert Choice Multidimensional models - OLAP Quantitative software packages-OLAP (statistical, etc.) Visual interactive modeling (VIM) Visual interactive simulation (VIS)
Simulation-An-NajahNationalUniversity一個納賈赫國立大學(xué)模擬
