中國與東亞經濟發(fā)展戰(zhàn)略浙江大學陳亞洲PPT課件

1 Knowledge Creation, AgglomerationandEconomic Growth towards the spatial economics in the brain power society 2 globalization ofthe world economy Development ofBrain Power Society（知識創(chuàng)造社會）The major reorganization ofGlobal economicpoliticalsocial systems(globalization / regionalization / localization)Revolutionary development in ICTand Transport TechnologyDevelopment of the Brain Power Society since the late 20th centurycompetition ininnovation power 3出所： 科學技術指標 平成16年版、文部科學省科學技術政策研究所 patent registration 日本経済新聞2007年9月4日夕刊 4 The future of East Asia世界的製造拠點（World Factory）世界的創(chuàng)造拠點世界的文化中心East Asian RenaissanceBrain Power Society 5 6出所： RIETI研究主幹長岡貞男日本特徴課題2007年10月16日 7出所： DRC呂薇中國國家特長2007年10月16日 RIETI発表 8Source: Nikkei Business 2007年5月14日號 9 a comprehensive theory of spatial economicsin the Brain Power Societydual linkagesincorporatingE-linkages: linkages through the production and transaction of (traditional) goods and services (the New Economic Geography)K-linkages: linkages through the creation and transfer of “knowledge” ideas information weak microfoundation 10 The fundamental resources in the Brain Power Societyl Individual Brain Power （頭脳知識）l Diversity in the peoplebrains （人材知識） in the societySynergy through the heterogeneouspeoplebrains 11 “The Bad News: The brain is the only natural resource in the resund Region. The Good News: The brain is the only natural resource that expands with use.” Hkan Pettersson Ph.D Biochemistry, Lund 12 in the cooperative process of K-creationthe key factor:the diversity of peopleCommon knowledgeiK jKC differential Kdifferential K(individual K) new ideas through the encounter of heterogeneous peopleijD jiD 13 “三人寄、文殊知恵”抵 個 渚 葛 亮”With three ordinary persons together,splendid ideas will come out.“三個 皮匠、臭、 14 15 “With three ordinary persons together,splendid ideas will come out.”After three ordinary persons meeting for threeyears, no splendid ideas will come out. Common knowledgeiK jKC differential Kdifferential K(individual K) ijD jiDIs it true in the long-run? 16 close cooperation ofheterogeneous K-workersantinomy (e.g. “nominication” in Japan)in the short-run in the long-runthroughclose communicationssynergy Common knowledgeheterogeneitysynergyHow to resolve this fundamental problem? 17 Diversity and Creativityof K-workers Growth Rate of Knowledgein the SocietyGrowth Rate of the EconomyImpact of ICT DevelopmentEndogenous Growth Model with Dynamics of Knowledge Diversity 18 The Dynamics of Knowledge Diversityand Economic GrowthMarcus Berliant: Washington University in St. LouisMasahisa Fujita: Konan University / Kyoto University / RIETIThe following model is based on:September 2007 19 Endogenous Growth Model a la R-H K-interaction Model a la B-FCooperative Systemfor K-productionProduction of New IdeasTacit-K Patentable-K(blue prints) NewPatentsAccumulation LearningCapacityCHomogeneousM-workers(population L)Producing DifferentiatedProductsConsumption ExistingPatents Self-organization through Square Dance1 % Public-KCommodity Sector R2. Promote broader K-interactions through active measuresWalls between organizations / institutions academic / professional fields regions / countries (cf: 1. US academic system, 2. Google, 3. Nokia) 51 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.40.3 0.50.1 dm J Bliss pointB)0(Mi jdistance D DDD 0 21 Jm )( 1DM )( 2DMm (D )* 1 m (D )* 2 m B D 2D 1D0D :critical distanceK-productivityIntroduction of space: ITdevelopment shrinking “distance”expansion of meetingset Mpossible to meet withmore diverse people)(D 52 Two-country caseInter-regionalinteractionsmigrationintrainteractionscountryA countryBiK jKijC lKkK klCAji , Blk , iK lKilC intrainteractionsAi Bj 53 accelerating East Asian Renaissance 54出所： 天才実像 朝日新聞社、NHK、NHK 55 Asia: the region with the ultimate diversityincome disparity: among countries (100 times), within a country(10 to 20 times)geography : North East Asia to South East Asia islands to coasts to Central Asia tropical to subarctic religion / culture: Buddhism, Confucianism, Islam, Hindu, Christianity, Shintopolitical regime: democratic, socialistic, communist, dictatorshipethnic / race: 2002000 within Indonesia alonelanguages: Conclusion 56 Based on the Diversity in nature, geography, resources, people (brains), culture,Industrial agglomerations / clusterscompetitionandcooperationAchieving the East Asian Renaissancemarket,political,institutional 57“Bhin-neka Tunggal Ika”Unification in Diversity 58 謝 謝Sorry for Overtime 59 “The Bad News: The brain is the only natural resource in the resund Region. The Good News: The brain is the only natural resource that expands with use.” Hkan Pettersson Ph.D Biochemistry, Lund 60 Consumer i :Maxwhere /1 0 )( M dhhqusubject to the life-time budget constraint: 0 )0()( iiti WdtetE where 0 )()0( dttyeW iti 61 Production of new ideas / patents (at a given time)1 iii na “new ideas”producedper unit of time % Explicit-K(patentable)Tacit-K (kept alone) in isolation (person i) Patents(public information)iKsize of 62 Hence, for : ji dji djidjidijdijiij m mmmmna 1 )()1()(2 2121 ddjidij mmm when (symmetric K-structure)( 1 )()21(2 1d d ddiij mg m mmna the normalizedK-productionfunction: 63 (b 1) 1 2 3 4 (b 2) 1 2 3 4 (d) 1 2 3 4 Between two groups:Increasingdifferential K possiblyswitchingpartnersincreasing common Kincreasing common Kquick rotationwith for all pairs 31ij 1 2meeting of time31not meeting of time32 increasingthe fastestdifferential Kbetween each pairwhile interactingamong the four 64 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.40.3 0.50.1 dm IJ Jm Bliss pointB K-productivity in meeting d dddiij m mmmgna 1 )()21( )(2 1 isolation share ofdifferential-KiiinaPossibility of achieving the most efficient K-productionthrough the equilibrium dynamics? 21BmPossibility of reaching the Bliss Point, and staying there forever?(Conditionally, Yes !)K-productivity 65Bm1 The negative lock-in effects of the past Japanesesocio-economic system (K-system)K-productivity Bm 2 dm0 0.5the past innovation systembased on homogeneity(lock-in) the new innovation systembased on heterogeneity(US-type?) K-production functionwith large (“Kaizen”-type) K-production functionwith small (invention-type) share ofdifferential-K IT revolutionglobalizationC and difficultyin transition(lock-in effects)the new innovationsystem based ongreater heterogeneitywith greater BN 66 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 0.40.3 0.50.1 dm J Bliss pointB)0(Mi jdistance D DDD 0 21 Jm )( 1DM )( 2DMm (D )* 1 m (D )* 2 m B D 2D 1D0D :critical distanceK-productivityIntroduction of space: ITdevelopment shrinking “distance”expansion of meetingset Mpossible to meet withmore diverse people)(D