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譯文題目：GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY NICOLETA ISAC, CONSTANTIN B?GU
汽車(chē)工業(yè)的全球視野
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GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES IN AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
NICOLETA ISAC, CONSTANTIN B?GU
ABSTRACT: The automotive sector is characterised by a relatively low trade/sales ratio. While the production of most automotive producers in the world is spread over various countries in the value chain, the brands are still considered to reflect some national identity. Internationalisation strategies may change over the lifecycle of the product and automakers tend to pursue diametrically opposed strategies. In mature markets, it is about managing what goes on beneath a static surface; in emerging markets’ dynamic environments, companies must strategically position themselves to benefit from growth opportunities. However, without the right strategy and execution in mature markets, it is clear that traditional OEMs cannot profit from emerging markets-the persistence of structural issues in mature market operations eventually will rob all but the most resilient competitors of the opportunity to compete in emerging markets.
KEY WORDS: competitiveness; automotive industry; global market; sales; investment
1. INTERNATIONAL MARKET
In Europe, the restructuring process is characterised by the shift east with the new EU member states in Central and East Europe (CEE) acting as the Western’s pressure valve against a background of stagnating sales, rising raw material costs, increased competition from Asian automakers and falling new car prices. CEE gives automakers access to less costly labour and new customers, and it allows new entrants,such as Hyundai and Kia, to compete without legacy costs. The net effect has been a rebalancing of automaker footprints in the region with Western Europe losing 1.5 million in capacity since 2000, while CEE countries will have added 1.8 million units of capacity by 2009. While mature market OEMs gradually come to grips with the market-specifi c challenges presented to them, multifarious strategic challenges weigh just as heavily before emerging market investments are considered. Strategic challenges emanate from two sources-legislation or competition-and both add costs to competing in markets where better performance will originate only by increasing market share or reducing costs. Such constraints include increasing fuel economy or CO2 objectives, recycling initiatives (e.g., the EU’s End of Life Vehicle Directive), changing consumer tastes, vehicle content escalation, premium brand growth, rising commodity prices and globalised supply chain management, among others.
Figure 1. Global perspective
Once automakers meet these mature market challenges, the next stage is to compete effectively in the world’s growth markets. From 2007 to 2015, emerging markets are expected to represent 18 times the estimated growth in light vehicle assembly as mature markets in the same period. PwC forecasts that 95 percent of light vehicle growth will originate from emerging markets. Among these markets, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries are most eminent in the growth stakes, with more than 58 percent of forecasted growth from 2007 to 2015 stemming from them. Of the BRIC countries, PwC expects China and India to lead the growth in light vehicle output as OEMs look to sate the demands of a combined population of more than 2 billion people, with the less populous-but still strategically important-Russia and Brazil expected to grow less rapidly.
With these divergent focuses of OEMs’ strategies, those competitors that best execute emerging and mature market strategies will be the winners. Those managing location issues with the concomitant capacity, together with a product portfolio that addresses anomalous market needs at the most attractive cost, will profit from the challenging global environment. Of the various competitors, it would seem that Toyota, despite a recent slowing of its growth in North America and Europe, is executing the most balanced global strategy. By 2015, PwC forecasts Toyota to remain the leading global alliance group with a forecast light vehicle output of 11.3 million. Behind Toyota lies the growth forecast for GM, thanks to its strong emerging market presence,and the dynamic Renault-Nissan alliance. While the emerging market or low-cost car was once an important differentiator for Renault-Nissan, many of its competitors are looking to launch competing vehicles-e.g., Toyota with its EFC program and VW with its NCC program. Low-cost vehicles will take on increasing importance for global automakers as they seek to accelerate the development of emerging markets and thus reduce the pressure to perform in the world’s highly competitive and challenging established markets.
2.EUROPEAN UNION OUTLOOK
Despite a short period of contraction from 2000 to 2003, Western Europe has enjoyed considerable stability since the late 1990s, with sales hovering around the 14.5 million mark in the mid-2000s. A lack of dynamic growth is a feature of a mostly mature market such as Western Europe, where replacement cycles and the prevailing economic situation drive demand. Economic growth in countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia, as well as Romania (joined 2007), has spurred a boom in sales volumes. The star performer has been Romania, where sales rose more than 25 percent in 2007-08, thanks to the improving economic situation and the rollout of the Dacia Logan-exactly the type of low-cost car designed to boost sales in emerging markets. Poland also seems to be reaching its potential, with sales increasing almost 23 percent year-on-year and totalling 293,000 in 2007.
Figure 2. European regions assembly 2000 vs. 2010 (milion units)
In Western Europe, a mosaic of factors influences the new car market. In Germany, the impact of the 3 percent increase in WATT continues to hold the German market back, so that despite a high average vehicle parc age and increasingly positive economic news, sales in 2007 were down almost 10 percent from 2006. Of the other big-fi ve markets, Spain also has moved into the negative, as the country’s construction-driven economic boom ended and consumer confidence declined. Italy,France and the UK posted above-average year-on-year growth for 2007, with Italy, in particular, performing well (up 7 percent), thanks in part to a raft of new vehicle introductions from domestic OEM Fiat. The UK (up 2.5 percent) and France (up 3.2 percent) also posted positive fi gures; however, increasing disquiet about the general economic situation- stubbornly high unemployment fi gures in France, the increased cost of credit in the UK, and the rising cost of living in almost all markets (mature and emerging)-suggests the picture for 2008 will not be so rosy
3. SUPPLY SITUATION
Due to the stable demand noted above, EU light vehicle output also has remained steady. Light vehicle assembly output rose to 18.830 million units in 2007, a significant increase above the previous peak of 18.065 million units in 2000. Following several years of near-fl at growth, output increased almost 1 million units in 2007. Looking ahead, light vehicle assembly output should continue to grow, at least until 2013. Then it is projected to reach 20.749 million units, almost 2 million units more than 2007’s output. After this, volume likely will stabilise around 20.7 million units. The source of this growth will be twofold. First, a combination of market recovery and, more importantly, new model programme investment will see increased output from traditional Western European automotive assembly countries Germany, France and Italy. Collectively, these three will see an increase in excess of 800,000 units between 2007 and 2015. Second, the countries of Central Europe, specifically those that acceded to the European Union in 2004 and 2007, also will see significant volume gains. Growth of their export industries and burgeoning domestic demand will drive this increase. The key assembly locations in Central Europe will be the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Romania. Collectively, they will account for more than 1 million units of extra assembly volume between 2007 and 2015. Investment activity by specific alliance groups naturally will have a significant effect on volume growth. The top five contributors to growth during the 2007-2015 period will be Hyundai Group, VW-Porsche, Fiat Group, Renault-Nissan and Ford Group. Renault-Nissan and Ford will enjoy volume growth, thanks to investments in Romania. In all these cases, automakers will rely on both domestic sales (in mature and emerging European markets) and, increasingly, exports to underpin these growth strategies. In the important Central European markets of Poland, Romania, Czech Republic and Slovakia, OEMs will add more capacity to take advantage of the lower-cost location and potential for domestic sales growth. Hence the model mix in these plants will be a combination of low-cost, emerging market products and higherend vehicles for export to developed markets in Europe and around the globe. Romania, in particular, has become the new focus for investment. Between 2007 and 2015, its new capacity will expand by a projected 330,000 units. Some of this will be continuing expansion of the Dacia business by owner Renault, but the recent acquisition of a plant (with guarantees of capacity expansion) by Ford also is a major driver. Thanks to accession, Romania is increasingly on the agenda of other OEMs looking to adjust their European footprints. Sales in Romania are represented in tabel 1.
The Russian market is unusual in having so many foreign players with such initially low forecast production plans. Most vehicle manufacturers appear to be hedging their bets wisely and planning a balanced strategy of local production and continued import. Depending on how investment conditions in Russia develop, vehicle manufacturers have the opportunity to increase or decrease the balance between import and local production. The tables below illustrate the latest Automotive Institute estimates of planned local production levels by brand origin over different time horizons. The next table indicates that production of foreign automotive brands in Russia could rise from about 450,000 in 2007 to a sustainable level of around 3 million units within seven years. Nearly all of this growth will be foreign OEM brands or new Russian brands developed in collaboration with foreign strategic investors, such as between Avtovaz and Renault. What does this imply for the future of the automotive component industry in Russia?
Figure 3. Car sales
Out of general economic necessity, most vehicle manufacturers will be trying to localise even more of their component supply to reduce customs duties and transport costs, and to benefit from local wage and raw material costs. If this trend is successful, the percentage of OEM components locally manufactured should increase from 10 percent to more than 50 percent over the next ten years, assuming that component cost is about 60 percent of the price of the car. This development could see the market for primary auto components for vehicle brands increase from $ 0.36 billion today to about $ 18 billion in seven years’ time. At the same time, we could see a similar, if not larger, scale of increase in the secondary market for components. In short, an entire component industry waits to be developed in the wake of the current wave of foreign car manufacturing investment in Russia.
Figure 4. The prospect of Russian manufacturing
4. CHINESE AND INDIAN BRANDS TO GAIN MARKET SHARE
Market share expectations continue to shift in favour of emerging Asian and mature Japanese and Korean brands; U.S. brands are expected to perform worst. Year on year Chinese brands have moved from second to first place in market share expectations, and Indian brands from fourth to second place, relegating Toyota from top position to third. Expectations of Honda’s market share have grown, as have expectations for many European brands. Meanwhile, expectations for General Motors, Ford and Chrysler have declined further from an already low level, with 63 percent of respondents expecting Ford to lose market share, 66 percent for General Motors and 69 percent for Chrysler. On a regional basis, EMA companies are markedly more optimistic on market share expectation than companies in the Americas or ASPAC - and in particular, they are more optimistic on the prospects for European brands (more than half of EMA companies see market share increases for VW and BMW).
Companies believe that even when China and India are discounted, emerging markets will still grow faster than any other region. Expectations of growth over the next three 48 years in markets outside China and India are globally well-distributed. Expectations are strongest for Central and South America, reflecting the relative resilience of Brazilian 36 demand as economies elsewhere turns down. Nevertheless, a significant minority of respondents also expect strong growth in the Middle East and Africa, and again in 24 Russia and Ukraine.
Figure 5. Markets and regions will present the greatest demand for consumption in the next 3 years
5.GROWTH MARKET BY FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT
Drivers of future cross-border automotive deals will likely include the arrival of new global players, emerging market growth, and currency fluctuations. In many cases, automotive companies in emerging nations are quickly becoming global players looking for increased access to global customers, markets, and technology. Examples in recent deals include India’s Tata and Mahindra & Mahindra, China’s Chery and SAIC, and Russia’s Russian Machines. This trend is likely to feed cross-border deal flow over the next several years. In turn, companies from developed nations seeking to gain further access to the quickly growing markets in the BRIC countries are also likely to be a factor in future cross-border deal activity. This could be especially true of component suppliers who are seeking proximity to local VMs. There were early signs of this in 2007 including Cummins’ purchase of the remaining shares of Tata Holset (a joint venture founded to produce diesel engines in India) and Bosch’s increased investment in Motor Industries, an Indian based component supplier. Finally, the weakening of the US dollar versus global currencies in 2008 vs. 2007 is likely to encourage bargain hunting in the US. This trend is already materialising in early 2008 as interest in US automotive assets increases. Overall, the currency situation could lead to a significantly larger net deal deficit for the US in 2008 vs. 2007, including large net deal surpluses from Asia, RoW, and potentially Europe.
Figure 6. Net flow of business by region 2007
6. CONCLUSION
Taking as a criterion performance on the global market, one can conclude that the European automotive industry is without any doubt competitive. It has expanded its export shares, and has maintained or improved slightly its share in global sales. Its position in emerging markets such as China and the Russian Federation is strong and offers prospects for further growth. This success of the European automotive industry in international competition is primarily based on its dominance of a large, loyal, sophisticated and diversified home market. Moreover, enlargement has been beneficial to the industry through its productive base and market effects.
However, not all is positive. If the performance of the German, French and Spanish industry is strong, Italy and the UK have lost market shares. The new production locations in Eastern Europe will increase pressures on existing locations.Finally, if the home market is indeed the largest in the World, it relies mostly on the replacement of existing cars and its growth potential (at least for EU-15 countries) has peaked.
REFERENCES:
[1].Achterholt, U. (2009) Industry concerns and expectations 2009-2013 Momentum, KPMG’s
Global Auto Executive Survey 2009
[2]. Elie, P.; McCarth, P. (2008) Drive value* Automotive M&A Insights
[3]. Matthew, F. (2008) European Union Outlook, Global Automotive Perspective
[4]. Root, S.; Tobin, P.; Sherbakova, N.; Komarov, A. (2008) Automotive Industry Prospects in Russia, Global Automotive Perspectives
汽車(chē)工業(yè)的全球視野
摘要：汽車(chē)行業(yè)的特點(diǎn)是一個(gè)相對(duì)較低的貿(mào)易/銷(xiāo)售比。雖然世界上大多數(shù)汽車(chē)生產(chǎn)商的生產(chǎn)價(jià)值鏈在各個(gè)國(guó)家傳播，但品牌仍被認(rèn)為是反映了國(guó)家的某些特性。國(guó)際化戰(zhàn)略在產(chǎn)品生命周期的變化，汽車(chē)制造商傾向于追求截然相反的策略。在成熟的市場(chǎng)，它是關(guān)于管理的靜態(tài)表面之下，在新興市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)態(tài)環(huán)境，企業(yè)必須從戰(zhàn)略地位，以受益于增長(zhǎng)機(jī)會(huì)。然而，不成熟的市場(chǎng)，正確的策略和執(zhí)行，顯然，傳統(tǒng)的OEM不能得益于新興市場(chǎng)結(jié)構(gòu)性問(wèn)題的持續(xù)成熟的市場(chǎng)操作，最終將搶劫但所有的機(jī)會(huì)最有力的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手爭(zhēng)奪新興市場(chǎng)。
【關(guān)鍵字】競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力；汽車(chē)產(chǎn)業(yè)；全球市場(chǎng)；銷(xiāo)售；投資
1.國(guó)際市場(chǎng)
在歐洲，重組過(guò)程的特點(diǎn)是與新的歐盟成員國(guó)在中歐和東歐（CEE）作為移東西方的壓力閥和一個(gè)銷(xiāo)售停滯不前的背景下，原材料成本上升、競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇，亞洲汽車(chē)制造商和下降的新車(chē)價(jià)格。CEE給汽車(chē)制造商獲得低成本的勞動(dòng)力和新的客戶，并允許新的進(jìn)入者，如現(xiàn)代和起亞，不遺留成本競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。凈效果是平衡與西歐失去150萬(wàn)容量自2000在該地區(qū)的汽車(chē)制造商的腳印，而東歐國(guó)家將有能力增加180萬(wàn)單位2009。而成熟市場(chǎng)OEM逐漸與市場(chǎng)的具體挑戰(zhàn)了他們的交手，五花八門(mén)的戰(zhàn)略挑戰(zhàn)的重量?jī)H為重考慮之前的新興市場(chǎng)投資。戰(zhàn)略挑戰(zhàn)來(lái)自兩個(gè)來(lái)源的立法或競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，同時(shí)增加成本，市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)將產(chǎn)生更好的性能，只能通過(guò)增加市場(chǎng)份額、降低成本。這些限制包括提高燃油經(jīng)濟(jì)性和CO2的目標(biāo)，回收舉措（例如，歐盟報(bào)廢汽車(chē)指令），改變消費(fèi)者的口味，車(chē)內(nèi)容升級(jí)，高端品牌的增長(zhǎng)，大宗商品價(jià)格的上漲和全球供應(yīng)鏈管理，等等。
圖1.全球視角
一旦汽車(chē)制造商滿足這些成熟的市場(chǎng)挑戰(zhàn)，下一階段是在世界的增長(zhǎng)市場(chǎng)有效競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。從2007到2015，新興市場(chǎng)預(yù)計(jì)將在同一時(shí)期的成熟市場(chǎng)的18倍，預(yù)計(jì)增長(zhǎng)的輕汽車(chē)組裝。普華永道預(yù)測(cè)，輕型汽車(chē)百分之95的增長(zhǎng)將來(lái)自新興市場(chǎng)。在這些市場(chǎng)中，金磚四國(guó)（巴西、俄羅斯、印度和中國(guó)）國(guó)家在增長(zhǎng)方面最為杰出，其預(yù)測(cè)的增長(zhǎng)率從百分之58增長(zhǎng)到2015，從2007增長(zhǎng)到。在金磚四國(guó)中，普華永道預(yù)計(jì)，中國(guó)和印度的增長(zhǎng)導(dǎo)致在輕型汽車(chē)產(chǎn)量為OEM看國(guó)家一個(gè)超過(guò)20億人口的需求，隨著人口較少但仍具有重要戰(zhàn)略意義的俄羅斯和巴西的預(yù)期增長(zhǎng)迅速。
這些分歧主要汽車(chē)制造商的策略，這些競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手的最佳執(zhí)行新興和成熟的市場(chǎng)策略將成為贏家。這些管理位置問(wèn)題的同時(shí)，與一個(gè)產(chǎn)品組合，解決了異常的市場(chǎng)需求，最有吸引力的成本，將利潤(rùn)從具有挑戰(zhàn)性的全球環(huán)境。在各種競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手中，豐田似乎認(rèn)為，盡管最近在北美國(guó)和歐洲的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩，但其執(zhí)行的是最平衡的全球戰(zhàn)略。2015，普華永道預(yù)測(cè)豐田保持領(lǐng)先的全球聯(lián)盟集團(tuán)與1130萬(wàn)輕型汽車(chē)產(chǎn)量預(yù)測(cè)。豐田背后的是通用汽車(chē)的增長(zhǎng)預(yù)測(cè)，得益于其強(qiáng)大的新興市場(chǎng)的存在，和動(dòng)態(tài)的雷諾-日產(chǎn)聯(lián)盟。而新興市場(chǎng)或低成本汽車(chē)曾是雷諾和日產(chǎn)的一個(gè)重要的區(qū)別，它的許多競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手正在展開(kāi)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，豐田以其等程序和大眾的NCC程序。低成本的汽車(chē)將越來(lái)越重視全球汽車(chē)制造商，因?yàn)樗麄儗で蠹涌煨屡d市場(chǎng)的發(fā)展，從而減少在世界上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和挑戰(zhàn)性的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)的壓力。
2.歐盟的前景
盡管短期內(nèi)收縮，從2000到2003，西歐自上世紀(jì)90年代末以來(lái)享有相當(dāng)穩(wěn)定，銷(xiāo)量徘徊在1450萬(wàn)馬克在2000年代中期，缺乏動(dòng)態(tài)增長(zhǎng)是最成熟的市場(chǎng)如歐洲西部的一個(gè)特點(diǎn)，在更換周期和當(dāng)時(shí)的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)驅(qū)動(dòng)需求。在波蘭這樣的國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，捷克共和國(guó)，匈牙利和斯洛伐克，以及羅馬尼亞（加入2007），催生了一個(gè)繁榮的銷(xiāo)售量。表演的明星是羅馬尼亞，那里的銷(xiāo)售額增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)百分之25，在2007-08賽季，由于經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)的改善和達(dá)契亞洛根正是低成本汽車(chē)旨在促進(jìn)在新興市場(chǎng)的銷(xiāo)售類(lèi)型的部署。波蘭似乎也達(dá)到了它的潛力，銷(xiāo)售額幾乎增加了百分之23，達(dá)到293000同比增長(zhǎng)2007。
圖2.歐洲地區(qū)總成2000與2010（萬(wàn)臺(tái)）
在西歐，一個(gè)鑲嵌的因素影響了新的汽車(chē)市場(chǎng)。在德國(guó)，在瓦百分之3增加的影響繼續(xù)持有德國(guó)市場(chǎng)回來(lái)，所以盡管有較高的平均車(chē)輛PARC年齡和越來(lái)越積極的經(jīng)濟(jì)消息，2007的銷(xiāo)售額已經(jīng)從2006下降近百分之10。西班牙的其他大型金融市場(chǎng)，西班牙也進(jìn)入了負(fù)增長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)樵搰?guó)的建設(shè)帶動(dòng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)繁榮結(jié)束，消費(fèi)者信心下降。意大利，法國(guó)和英國(guó)公布的平均同比增長(zhǎng)率為2007，與意大利，特別是，表現(xiàn)良好（增長(zhǎng)百分之7），部分歸功于一系列新的車(chē)輛介紹，從國(guó)內(nèi)代工菲亞特。英國(guó)（百分之2.5）和法國(guó)（百分之3.2）也發(fā)布了積極的網(wǎng)絡(luò)數(shù)據(jù)；然而，越來(lái)越多的不安，總的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)，失業(yè)率居高不下的網(wǎng)絡(luò)連接在法國(guó)，在英國(guó)的信用成本的增加，以及生活成本的上升幾乎在所有市場(chǎng)（成熟和新興）-顯示圖片2008將不那么樂(lè)觀
3.供應(yīng)狀況
由于上面提到的穩(wěn)定需求，歐盟輕型車(chē)的產(chǎn)量也一直保持穩(wěn)定。輕型汽車(chē)總成的產(chǎn)量上升到1883萬(wàn)個(gè)單位的2007，比前一個(gè)高峰的1806萬(wàn)5000個(gè)單位的2000個(gè)顯著增加。在近幾年的增長(zhǎng)，在近幾年的增長(zhǎng)，產(chǎn)量增加了近100萬(wàn)個(gè)單位的2007。展望未來(lái)，輕型汽車(chē)總成的產(chǎn)量應(yīng)該繼續(xù)增長(zhǎng)，至少要到2013。然后，它預(yù)計(jì)將達(dá)到2074萬(wàn)9000臺(tái)，近200萬(wàn)臺(tái)，超過(guò)2007的輸出。在此之后，成交量可能會(huì)穩(wěn)定在2070萬(wàn)個(gè)左右的單位。這一增長(zhǎng)的來(lái)源將是雙重的。首先，市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇的組合，更重要的是，新的模型方案的投資將看到增加從傳統(tǒng)的西歐汽車(chē)組裝國(guó)家德國(guó)，法國(guó)和意大利?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，這三個(gè)將看到2007和800000之間的2015個(gè)單位的增加超過(guò)了。其次，歐洲中部的國(guó)家，特別是那些加入歐盟的2004和2007，也會(huì)看到明顯的放量上漲。其出口產(chǎn)業(yè)的增長(zhǎng)和新興的國(guó)內(nèi)需求將推動(dòng)這一增長(zhǎng)。在歐洲中部的關(guān)鍵組件的位置將是捷克共和國(guó)，波蘭，斯洛伐克，羅馬尼亞?？偟膩?lái)說(shuō)，他們將占到和2007之間的和2015之間的額外的組裝量的超過(guò)100萬(wàn)單位。特定的聯(lián)盟團(tuán)體的投資活動(dòng)，自然會(huì)對(duì)數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)有顯著影響。前五名貢獻(xiàn)者增長(zhǎng)2007-2015期間將現(xiàn)代集團(tuán)，大眾，保時(shí)捷，菲亞特，雷諾-日產(chǎn)和福特集團(tuán)。由于在羅馬尼亞的投資，雷諾日產(chǎn)和福特將享受銷(xiāo)量增長(zhǎng)。在所有這些情況下，汽車(chē)制造商將依賴于國(guó)內(nèi)銷(xiāo)售（在成熟和新興的歐洲市場(chǎng)），越來(lái)越多的出口，以鞏固這些增長(zhǎng)戰(zhàn)略。在波蘭、羅馬尼亞的重要中心的歐洲市場(chǎng)，捷克共和國(guó)和斯洛伐克，制造商將增加更多的能力，利用低成本的定位和國(guó)內(nèi)銷(xiāo)售的增長(zhǎng)潛力。因此，在這些植物的模型將是一個(gè)組合的低成本、新興市場(chǎng)的產(chǎn)品和車(chē)輛出口到發(fā)達(dá)市場(chǎng)在歐洲和世界各地的。羅馬尼亞，特別是已成為新的投資重點(diǎn)。在2015和2007之間，其新的容量將由一個(gè)預(yù)計(jì)的330000個(gè)單位擴(kuò)大。這部分將繼續(xù)擴(kuò)張的達(dá)契亞業(yè)務(wù)由業(yè)主雷諾，但最近收購(gòu)的植物（與擴(kuò)容擔(dān)保）由福特也是一個(gè)重要的驅(qū)動(dòng)程序。感謝加入，羅馬尼亞越來(lái)越對(duì)其他原始設(shè)備制造商希望調(diào)整他們的歐洲足跡的議程。
俄羅斯市場(chǎng)是不尋常的，有這么多的外國(guó)球員，這樣的最初低預(yù)測(cè)的生產(chǎn)計(jì)劃。大多數(shù)汽車(chē)制造商似乎是明智的對(duì)沖風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，并規(guī)劃了本地生產(chǎn)的平衡策略，并繼續(xù)進(jìn)口。根據(jù)俄羅斯的投資條件如何發(fā)展，汽車(chē)制造商有機(jī)會(huì)增加或減少進(jìn)口和本地生產(chǎn)之間的平衡。下面的表格說(shuō)明了最新的汽車(chē)研究所估計(jì)，在不同的時(shí)間視野中，由品牌起源計(jì)劃的地方生產(chǎn)水平的估計(jì)。下一個(gè)表表明，俄羅斯的外國(guó)汽車(chē)品牌的生產(chǎn)可能會(huì)從2007左右上升到450000左右，在七年內(nèi)的一個(gè)可持續(xù)的水平約300萬(wàn)個(gè)單位。幾乎所有的增長(zhǎng)將國(guó)外OEM品牌或新品牌在俄羅斯境外戰(zhàn)略投資者合作開(kāi)發(fā)，如伏爾加汽車(chē)公司和雷諾之間。這對(duì)俄羅斯的汽車(chē)零部件產(chǎn)業(yè)的未來(lái)意味著什么？
圖3.汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)售
從一般的經(jīng)濟(jì)必要性，大多數(shù)汽車(chē)制造商將試圖本地化更多的零部件供應(yīng)減少關(guān)稅和運(yùn)輸費(fèi)用，并從當(dāng)?shù)氐墓べY和原材料成本效益。如果這一趨勢(shì)是成功的，本地生產(chǎn)的零部件制造的百分比應(yīng)該從百分之10提高到百分之50以上，在未來(lái)十年，假設(shè)組件成本是約百分之60的價(jià)格的汽車(chē)。這一發(fā)展可以看到汽車(chē)品牌的主要汽車(chē)零部件市場(chǎng)從3億6000萬(wàn)美元增加到七年的時(shí)間里，大約180億美元。同時(shí)，我們可以看到類(lèi)似的，如果不大，規(guī)模的增加，在二級(jí)市場(chǎng)的組成部分?？傊诙砹_斯的外國(guó)汽車(chē)制造業(yè)投資的當(dāng)前浪潮之后，一個(gè)完整的組成部分產(chǎn)業(yè)有待發(fā)展。
圖4.俄羅斯制造業(yè)前景展望
4.中國(guó)和印